The evidence standard
Every claim across the eight sections carries a confidence marker. The markers are the point: they let a skeptical room separate what is verifiable from what is inferred.
The seven markers
Verifiable from a primary source — a regulator publication, a court opinion, a filing, or a rule.
Strongly supported by converging evidence, but not directly stated by a primary source.
Constructed arithmetic from disclosed inputs. The inputs are sourced; the result is derived.
Published by a party selling into the category. Directionally useful, commercially motivated.
Self-reported by the company in question. Specific enough to be testable, not independently audited.
Drawn from proprietary advisory research rather than a public source.
Flagged honestly as unevidenced. Present as a question to be answered, never as a finding.
Four principles behind the markers
The absence of a number is itself a finding
Where no party publishes a figure, that is stated rather than filled with an estimate. No vendor in this market publishes an accuracy score for extraction on oil and gas land instruments, and saying so is more useful than inventing one.
Vendor claims are labeled as vendor claims
Material published by a party selling into the category is directionally useful and commercially motivated. It is used, and it is marked, so a reader can discount it appropriately.
Arithmetic is shown, not asserted
Every derived number states its inputs. Where an input is unknowable from outside the operator, the arithmetic is presented as illustrative and the missing input is converted into a diagnostic question.
Guesses are named as guesses
The lowest confidence marker exists so that unevidenced propositions can still be included without contaminating the evidenced ones. A guess presented as a finding is the fastest way to lose a room.
A note on framing
The analysis is written for a generic large-cap, Lower 48-weighted independent upstream operator. Portfolio figures are real and sourced, and are used illustratively rather than as a claim about any one company. Substitute a specific operator’s own disclosure and the shape of the argument does not change.